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It is foreseeable that in the middle of the 21st century overland transport will look little like that from the end of the 20th century. Complete computerization will be the motor of the development. Complete computerization means automatic guidance integrated in a network and the combination of the supply and demand data of trips. The near future will present great changes for us:

-Vehicles of more than fifteen seats will disappear.
-Speed will be separated by means of elevation on columns.
-Cities will be entirely pedestrian, at street level vehicles will compulsorily circulate slowly.
-Every trip will be agreed in advance between the traveller and the transport network.
-Specific narrow conduits for merchandise will be created
-Public transport companies will solve the door-to-door issue from origin to destination for their users.

Whereas generally the feasibility studies on transport maintain the assumption of means similar to the present ones, with heavy vehicles on heavy railroad lines or motorways at ground level, and only foresee a superficial application of computerization that does not contemplate radical changes in driving nor in data combination, the book THE COMPUTERIZATION OF TRANSPORT, along with articles from this website, constitutes an original scenario, fruit of the analysis elaborated by the writer Julio Arbesú throughout a decade. This analysis is called PARINTRANS.

The three steps of 21st century transport

- The first step is inexpensive door-to-door public transport

In the last century trains and buses took their passengers from one station to another. The twenty-first-century challenge is the complete service in time and space. The means to accomplish it are:
-Communication between travellers and central control by phone or the Internet in order to reach an agreement about all journeys (short and long ones).
-The computerized combination of supply and demand data.
-Communication between central control and vehicles in order to direct the drivers by displaying the itinerary with stops near the commuter’s point of origin or destination.
-The utilization of medium-size vehicles (taxibuses with 8 to 15 seats).
-The creation of a commercial network of agencies and other transport companies with the aim of guaranteeing the door-to-door concept for all journeys (both short and long ones) of a customer or a group of customers (for example, one family), jointly or separately. The agencies will combine several means of transport, if necessary (for example: taxibus, airplane, taxibus).

 - The second step (a result of the first) is the extinction of the dinosaurs of transport

All road or rail vehicles with more than 15 seats. They will have lost their function in the door-to-door age. As in modern schools, 60 pupils/passengers per teacher/driver is a sub-developed ratio. As in modern hospitals, 60 patients/passengers per doctor/driver is a sub-developed ratio. The motive is the same in vehicles, schools or hospitals.

The beneficiary of the service prefers and can pay for a personalized treatment. Developed countries have more doctors and teachers, it is a sign of progress. Therefore they will employ one driver per 10 passengers on average. That will not be expensive.
The first and second steps are required for the successful development of innovative systems.
When door-to-door public transport becomes more popular, the percentage of public journeys will increase. Many owners of a car will use taxibuses for many of their trips, chiefly for the short ones.

- The third step is the definitive separation of speed

A vehicle at high speed at ground level is very dangerous for its passengers and for its surroundings. There will be two methods of separation of speed, one for humans and one for freight. Humans and freight are like a stick and a stone in water. The stick goes up, the stone goes down.
The definitive separation of speed for the transport of passengers is light elevation. This is the dominion of the successful dualmode or personal rapid transit systems for passengers. The vehicles, both public and private, will be light. They will move speedily by automated guide ways, and they will move slowly along the street controlled by human drivers, or maybe by additional guides.

The definitive separation of velocity for freight is the narrow underground pipe (circular or square, often just below the pedestrian’s feet and the wheels on the streets). There will be also the super-narrow domiciliary pipe, not always underground, but sometimes elevated.

 

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